As the world prepares for tomorrow’s Super Bowl, the air is thick with “expert” opinions suggesting that Seattle’s defense will simply blow New England away. However, sports history—and the Washington Post—have taught us that the game isn’t just won in the trenches; it’s won in the mind. Using the same Mental Performance Index (MPI) that earned me the title ‘The Freud of Football,’ I am forecasting an extremely tight contest that defies the consensus. While many focus on physical stats, the real battle is being waged in the cognitive functioning of the athletes under the most intense pressure imaginable.

This analysis by licensed psychologist and sports psychologist Dr. John F. Murray combines current Super Bowl insights with his classic Washington Post feature.

The Washington Post: John F. Murray is the Freud of Football

By Don Oldenburg (Archived from the Washington Post)

John F. Murray is the “Freud of Football.” A licensed psychologist and sports psychologist in West Palm Beach, Fla., he devised the Mental Performance Index (MPI) for quantifying how close a team comes to mental and physical perfection. He has broken down every play of championship games, assigning point values for factors ranging from “focused execution” to “pressure management.” An MPI score of .600 is excellent and .500 is average.

Murray accurately predicted the blowout upset two years ago by Tampa Bay. Last year, he presaged an “extremely close game” but got the winner wrong—he picked the Carolina Panthers, not New England (the game was indeed one of the closest in history, a 3-point game decided in the final 3 seconds). This Super Bowl looks like another tough call.

The Science Behind the “Freud of Football” Title

The moniker “Freud of Football,” coined by Don Oldenburg of the Washington Post, speaks to a deeper shift in how we analyze the gridiron. For decades, football was viewed through the lens of brute force and physical stamina. However, as the margins for error in the NFL became razor-thin, the mental game took center stage. The MPI was designed to bridge the gap between traditional scouting and cognitive science. It addresses the “why” behind the performance—why does a Hall of Fame quarterback suddenly throw into triple coverage? Why does a veteran kicker miss a chip shot? The answers are in the MPI.

In my work as a licensed psychologist, I realized that “clutch” performance wasn’t just a buzzword; it was a measurable psychological state. The MPI quantifies factors that are often ignored in the box score: the speed of decision-making under high-cortisol conditions, the ability to maintain focused execution after a turnover, and the resilience required to execute a 2-minute drill in a hostile stadium. When the Washington Post referred to me as the Freud of Football, they were acknowledging that the mind is the ultimate playing field.

Quantifying Perfection: How the MPI Works

The MPI is not merely a “stat.” It is a psychological auditing tool. When I analyze a game, I am looking for the Mental Performance Index of every player and unit on the field. An MPI score of .600 represents a state of “Flow,” where the physical training of the athlete and the cognitive focus of the competitor are in perfect harmony. In tomorrow’s Super Bowl, the team that reaches this level of “Flow” first will dictate the pace of the entire game.

Take the New England Patriots. Their physical roster is always competitive, but their “Pressure Management” scores are consistently in the elite tier. My analysis for the Washington Post highlighted that while opponents may have the overall statistical advantage, the Patriots have a psychological edge in “clean-played” situations. This nuance is what defines the mental game: it isn’t about who has the most talent, but who can access that talent when the internal and external noise is at its loudest. Tomorrow’s game between Seattle and New England will be a masterclass in this struggle.

The Psychological Edge in My 27-24 Prediction

Football is a game of chaos, and the team that manages that chaos most efficiently usually lifts the Lombardi Trophy. In my decades of experience doing mental performance coaching, I’ve found that games are often won or lost in the “gray areas” of focused execution. If an athlete’s mind drifts toward the consequences of failure (the “fear of loss”) rather than the execution of the task, the MPI score plummets. The Super Bowl is the ultimate laboratory for this psychological stress test.

Seattle is entering tomorrow with the burden of expectation. They are expected to dominate. This creates a “Protection State” mentally, where the fear of losing what you have can override the aggression needed to win. New England, conversely, has refined the art of “Task-Oriented Focus.” By predicting a 27-24 victory for New England, I am betting on their ability to remain cognitively flexible when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter. Common wisdom is often blinded by last week’s results; the MPI looks at the underlying mental structure of the team.

Reflecting on the MPI Legacy

{Author’s Note: It was another game that was one of the closest in history. Don, thanks for the “Freud of Football” reference. I definitely use it! You accurately refer to the MPI as quantifying the degree of perfection, including both mental and physical factors. The MPI’s purpose is to help coaches and teams achieve peak performance, but of course, the general public loves the fun of the “pick.” The MPI was right on again in estimating the relative performance shown in an extremely close game. At that time, the MPI was 3/3 in beating the spread—a testament to the power of psychological analysis in sports.}

Why Mental Performance Matters for You

Whether you are an NFL quarterback or a CEO in North Palm Beach, the principles of the “Freud of Football” apply. High-stakes performance is universal. The same cognitive disruption that causes a kicker to miss a field goal can cause an executive to falter during a board presentation. My mission as a licensed psychologist is to provide the tools necessary to maintain that .600 MPI score in any arena of life. I’ve done this through workshops worldwide and my bestselling book, Smart Tennis, and the same psychological rigors apply to the football field.

For more information on mental performance coaching or psychological services, or to schedule a consultation, visit my Sports Psychology Services page.

Dr. John F. Murray is a licensed psychologist and sports psychologist based in North Palm Beach, Florida. Work is available by phone or Zoom.