Click Here to See the Archive of all 2012 MPI Reviewed Miami Dolphins and Miami Hurricanes Games
Canesport.com Publisher’s Note: “Mind Games” is a column written for CaneSport each week by John Murray, a noted sports psychologist and author who has developed an index for evaluating the mental performance of players and coaches in games. We think it will provide all of us with a unique viewpoint as the Hurricanes navigate through the season.
What a season this is turning out to be with the Canes 4-1 heading into their showdown with the Golden Domers in Chicago. Aside from that one miserable day in Kansas, the Canes are a very young team learning on the job, finding ways to win, and keeping us all in total awe.
Notre Dame looms, so this heated rivalry so good for college football just became legitimate again. In these lonely moments before the big battle you might be wondering how good this Miami team is. Is the U ready to take the next step and crush that holier than thou bunch? Or will a top 10 ranked Fighting Irish team teach Miami a painful lesson and destroy all our lofty delusions?
These kinds of questions are precisely why I developed the MPI. I thrive on the drama of athletic competition, and while we’ll not know what happens until Saturday I am also a scientist and the MPI cuts through all that emotion and simply shows how a team performed. After looking at the data from the NC State game last week, as you can see below, I am extremely concerned. The data is showing us that Miami is in for a huge awakening Saturday. Since I love the Canes and hope they destroy Notre Dame, I can only hope this inspires the players to play even better, but I would be lying if I said I am not worried.
Let’s see why by looking at the stats from last week:
North Carolina State
Offense .509 Defense .473 Special Teams .534 Pressure Offense .429 Pressure Defense .592 Total Pressure .523
Total MPI Score .496
University of Miami
Offense .497 Defense .450 Special Teams .431 Pressure Offense .403 Pressure Defense .577 Total Pressure .476
Total MPI Score .469
As you can see, NC State actually outperformed Miami last Saturday (.496 to .469) and they did so despite an almost unheard of number of penalties (14) and a -5 turnover ratio with six turnovers that usually leads to a team being slaughtered by five touchdowns. In other words, NC State played one of the sloppiest games in the country last Saturday and still almost pulled it out.
Do you realize how scary this is? Miami played a clean game with only four penalties and one turnover and yet almost lost to a team that looked like the blundering 1970 Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl V. I don’t know about you, but my warning alarm is sounding as loud as it can as this very disciplined Notre Dame team approaches.
The reason the Wolfpack outperformed Miami, despite an enormous number of errors and mistakes, is that they also beat the Hurricanes in every main category except the final score. They were slightly better on offense (.509 to .497) and defense (.473 to .450), much better on special teams (.534 to .431) and better in pressure too (.523 to .476). Had State played just a slightly cleaner game, Miami would be 3-2.
Let’s not forgot the positives. This Hurricanes team never quit. I love this about them. The big play ruled. Stephen Morris had the best total passing yards in Miami Hurricanes football history (566), such a high percentile that I might as well just say 100! Think about it. Miami has probably played a thousand football games, and this was the best single day out of of those 1,000 for a quarterback. Miami also gained a ridiculous number of overall yards (651) but NC State was even better (664). These yardage totals are also off the percentile charts, so this was indeed a rare game that was thrilling to watch.
Of course I am most bothered about Miami’s defense. NC State ran for 224 yards, which is at the 97th percentile, and they also controlled time of possession by seven minutes. Giving up 651 yards to an average NC State team could equate to giving up 1,000 yards to a strong Notre Dame. To say that I am very concerned about Miami’s defense is the understatement of the decade.
Football is a game of intangibles and emotions and matchups. There is no love lost between these two teams historically and I expect that both teams will be at 125 percent effort. If Miami can win the turnover battle again (but don’t expect plus-5 like last week), play another clean game in terms of penalties, and unleash Morris’ arm, then Miami has a slight chance. What really concerns me is that Miami is 100th in the nation defensively in points against and they only played one top 25 team and got killed. Notre Dame is third in points against, and they beat two top 20 teams in Michigan and Michigan State. Do I sound like I am panicking?
The matchup between Miami’s air attack and Notre Dame’s defense will be exciting to watch. Quarterbacks are so influential and I think Miami has a gem in Morris. No matter what Notre Dame brings, a great quarterback with a little blocking and some playmakers like Phillip Dorsett can often hit the home run. Ok, I think I let myself daydream a little too much there and I better stick to my MPI and finish up with a huge warning.
The numbers indicate that Miami escaped a hurricane of their own last week due to the many big passing plays and an astounding number of fortunate opponent mistakes. If statistics mean anything at all, and Notre Dame plays a clean game, Miami could be destroyed. It could even get uglier than Kansas State, and that was ugly. Prove me wrong Miami. I dare you. I would love you to. But the way it is going in terms of performance, Notre Dame is licking their chops about now, and getting ready to shine. Unless the Miami defense grows up quickly, this will be frightening.
Go Canes! Use my negative forecast as motivation. Show me how important emotions and Miami history is by stepping up and shutting down these dangerous rivals. Put Miami back on the map with a big win. But focus on better performance, especially on defense.
Dr. John F. Murray, described as “The Freud of Football” by the Washington Post, is a South Florida native and licensed clinical and sports psychologist in Palm Beach. He provides mental coaching and sports psychology services, counseling, speeches and seminars. He recently authored his second book, “The Mental Performance Index: Ranking the Best Teams in Super Bowl History,” destroying stigmas about the mental game in sports and showing football teams how to perform better and win more games by enhancing team performance assessments and training. For further information call Dr. Murray at 561-596-9898, visit johnfmurray.com or email johnfmurray@mindspring.com.
I hope you enjoyed this glimpse into the world of sports psychology.