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Miami 17 St. Louis 14: Miami Wins Second Game in a Row Largely Due to Amazing Special Teams Play
Special to JohnFMurray.com – by John F Murray, Ph.D. – Below is the Actual Performance Chart showing the Dolphins total team performance, and performance on offense, defense, special teams, offensive pressure performance, defensive pressure performance, and total pressure performance (MPT-TP). Next is a detailed report of each team’s performance using a large normative comparison sample to draw out most significant findings. This article describes what everyone wants to know – how the teams actually performed regardless of the final scoreboard score which is often grossly misleading.
Miami Dolphins
Offense .445 Defense .496 Special Teams .783 Pressure Offense .386 Pressure Defense .714 Total Pressure .570
Total MPI Score .509
St. Louis Rams
Offense .490 Defense .505 Special Teams .512 Pressure Offense .267 Pressure Defense .604 Total Pressure .417
Total MPI Score .498
The Miami Dolphins won again, and their performance justified this victory over the Rams at Sunlife Stadium (.509 to .498 on MPI-T) and got the team to a .500 record. This is an NFL year where parity seems to be more and more evident with many .500 teams and few powerhouses. It’s really anybody’s game now and the post-season, which seemed nearly impossible only two weeks ago, could actually become a reality for this young Dolphins team who now get a valuable week of rest before going up to play the division rival Jets in two weeks. I didn’t just suggest playoffs, did I? Oops! Way too soon to do that, but Miami has been deprived for so long that it just came out!
How did they do it? As you know by now, I analyze traditional statistics as well as the statistic I invented, the MPI, and additionally use a large comparison sample to determine where any particular score fits within the distribution. This allows me to tell you which scores were extreme, or highly influential in this particular game, compared with hundreds of games that came before. Knowing the z scores (or percentiles which is just another form of a z score) I can describe the rarity or significance of my findings. This goes way beyond the often illusory raw scores which say a lot, but don’t put it all into context.
In this game, the most extreme factor overall, and it was huge, was the play of the Dolphins special teams (MPI-ST=.783). This was an astounding performance that placed it at the 99.99+ percentile – way off the charts. It was largely the result of Miami’s developing star punter Brandon Fields who averaged 53.8 yards on 6 punts and kickoff returner Marcus Thigpen, who rambled for a 34.5 average on two kickoff returns. Many underestimate the value of the kicking game and field position, but in this closely contested NFL it can no longer be ignored. Make no mistake about it. Miami won this game on special teams. Yet you will not read this anywhere else. I have the data to show that it is true.
The second most influential factor in this Miami win were the careless and numerous penalties committed by St. Louis. They had 12 penalties for 94 yards (compared with Miami’s much cleaner 5 for 40 yards) and this also represents an extreme around the 99th percentile. This was unfortunate for a Rams team that destroyed Miami in total yards gained (462 to 192), yards passing (300 to 156) and yards rushing (162 to 36). In fact, this game perfectly demonstrates how teams who play error free smart football can often defeat teams who run and pass all over them!
Miami should have been blown out of this game by Sam Bradford’s passes but the fact is that the rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill achieved a higher passer rating (112 compared with 91.3) by avoiding the turnover and throwing 2 touchdowns. Bradford did not throw an interception but the team fumbled once compared with Miami’s 0 turnovers.
The take home message is that if you win the turnover and penalty battle you can often defeat a team that moves the ball better. Yet credit needs also go to Miami’s defense in pressure situations (MPI-DP=.714). So while Miami’s dominant defense against the run had somewhat of an off day (Rams ran for 162 yards), they were much better in the clutch when it really counted. This is what we mean by a “bend but do not break” defense, and it was a phrase often used in the early 70s to describe Miami’s No Name defense that went to three straight Super Bowls.
In sum, Miami won a close game by playing amazingly on special teams, but playing smarter and cleaner football and making fewer mistakes, by capitalizing on Ram penalties and turnovers, by playing a very solid game at quarterback, and by making it happen on defense when needed. It was a beautiful display of smart coaching by Joe Philbin.
Miami needs to keep their head down and focused as they prepare for the Jets in two weeks. The fact is that this win over St. Louis, while very impressive, was facilitated by a huge number of Rams stumbles, so a team that plays a cleaner game is going to be much harder to beat in the future. Miami should not get an overinflated sense of well-being, and instead just keep on grinding away, playing smart, keeping errors to a minimum, and finding ways to win. There is a very long way to go (10 games) before the playoffs, and talk of that is definitely premature. The team needs to just keep improving – period.
Dr. John F. Murray, described as “The Freud of Football” by the Washington Post, is a South Florida native and licensed clinical and sports psychologist in Palm Beach. He provides mental coaching and sports psychology services, counseling, speeches and seminars. He recently authored his second book, “The Mental Performance Index: Ranking the Best Teams in Super Bowl History,” destroying stigmas about the mental game in sports and showing football teams how to perform better and win more games by enhancing team performance assessments and training. For further information call Dr. Murray at 561-596-9898, visit johnfmurray.com or email johnfmurray@mindspring.com.
I hope you enjoyed this article courtesy of sports psychology.