Sports Psychology Special: Click Here to See the Archive of all 2012 MPI Reviewed Miami Dolphins and Miami Hurricanes Games

Canesport.com Publisher’s Note: “Mind Games” is a column written for CaneSport each week by John Murray, a noted sports psychologist and author who has developed an index for evaluating the mental performance of players and coaches in games. We think it will provide all of us with a unique viewpoint as the Hurricanes navigate through the season.

I typed “STOP THE RUN” three times in one paragraph in the last column, and this was not because I enjoy typing. I was anticipating last Saturday’s game against the Tar Heels. We all knew the Canes defense against the run was suspect and I have no crystal ball. But I do have the advantage of science, and a huge data set on past football games. These statistics bring reality into focus the way a telescope sees craters on planets better or a microscope spots the shape of germs.

The trends over the past few games shouted out that this weakness against the run was a statistical outlier. It was beyond bad, and indeed the biggest reason we lost Saturday. So while I am just as upset about the Hurricanes loss as we all are, I am also more excited than ever about what science is bringing to football. It’s why I spent years developing the MPI and why I’m so passionate about it and convinced about its utility.

I was an athlete and a coach long before deciding to become a sports psychologist. Seeing the value of the mental game when I was coaching inspired me greatly. Since my coaching days, I have become more and more convinced that the popular sports psychology mantra “Place Performance over Winning” is spot on accurate in helping players and teams succeed.

“Performance over Winning” works in two ways. It helps in (1) advising players and teams where to place their energies, and (2) in understanding and analyzing games better. By measuring football “performance” (not outcome) with the MPI, and carefully reviewing all statistics with the benefits of a large comparison sample, knowledge provides powerful clarity in understanding.

Back to this game, the North Carolina player who ran all over our defense is ironically from our backyard in Davie, Fla. He starred at St. Thomas Aquinas in Ft. Lauderdale and was the No. 2 ranked running back in Florida and No. 12 in the country. His name is Giovani Bernard and his choice to play college football at North Carolina rather than Miami may have been the most disturbing factor as he ran wild for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. Let’s hope future recruiting is a little better. We cannot afford to lose many players like this.

Despite Bernard’s stellar performance, Al Golden had this team very ready to play and the Hurricanes performed much better than against Notre Dame. In fact, it probably took the late ankle injury to Stephen Morris to prevent what might have been an uplifting comeback. Nothing against Ryan Williams, and he did very well, I think Morris’ experience and talent would have engineered a big win.

Let’s take a look at the Actual Performance Chart:

North Carolina

Offense: .540 Defense: .473 Special Teams: .469 Pressure Offense: .500 Pressure Defense: .536 Total Pressure: .507

Total MPI Score: .501

University of Miami

Offense: .480 Defense: .407 Special Teams: .364 Pressure Offense: .440 Pressure Defense: .333 Total Pressure: .396

Total MPI Score: .440

As you can see above, the Canes were outperformed in every MPI category, so this loss was expected based on performance and no surprise to the careful observer. One of the main reasons Miami kept it close and almost pulled it off had to do with North Carolina’s mistakes. Their 15 penalties for 140 yards was as sloppy as it gets and a very rare occurrence (less than first percentile). The entire game, in fact, was played at a lower than average level of performance with North Carolina clearly outperforming the Canes .501 to .440 on MPI-T.

Bernard was not the only player to gallop well as North Carolina amassed 272 yards on the ground (99th percentile plus) compared with Miami’s 180, and their total yards was also superior (486 to 415). Time of possession and passing yards were roughly equal (235 to 214 for Miami), so the Tar Heel running attack was decisive.

Miami’s special teams had their worst performance in recent memory (MPI-ST=.364) compared with North Carolina’s average special teams play (MPI-ST=.469). Miami’s two turnovers compared with North Carolina’s one did us no favors.

The final big factor in this game was Miami’s ineptitude on defense (MPI-D=.407), but especially in pressure situations (MPI-DP=.333). This means that Miami rarely got the job done in critical moments of the game on defense.

In sum, Miami performed better than two weeks ago in Chicago against Notre Dame, and almost came away smiling. They were outclassed, however, by an older and more mature team, especially on the ground.

There is only one solution to righting this ship. Beat FSU Saturday at home on prime time. Do that and all other pains will go away for a while and the season will take on a totally new feel. But doing this, even at home, will be miles and miles from easy.

FSU’s team is not without flaws. They lost to North Carolina State whereas Miami found a way to win that game with a terrific offense. Sometimes teams play their best football with their backs up against the wall and I expect that Al Golden will again have his troops ready, and there is no better time to pull the upset than in prime time with the world watching. Having said all that, Miami is going to be asked to stop the 15th best rushing team in the country, and possibly start their backup quarterback. If you thought the North Carolina teams and Notre Dame were hard to stop on the ground, FSU’s team is much better still.

We do know that stress often brings out the best in us, and I am an optimist, so here is a way Miami can win:

1. Play clean and smart football with few errors. This means superb time of possession, getting the lead early, and keeping the ball away from FSU’s offense by converting on third and fourth downs, and maybe going for it a little more on fourth than usual.

2. Capitalize on scoring opportunities, force turnovers while holding onto the ball, and reduce penalties to nearly zero. Discipline is essential.

3. Swarm to the ball on defense, finish tackles, and hit 20 percent harder than usual. Be aggressive but do not make silly errors or penalties.

4. Never quit. This game is for pride and future recruiting, and many young players will grow up in a hurry no matter what happens.

I will be at this game, and I expect you to be there too. Let’s cheer loudly and grab a victory that few expect!

Dr. John F. Murray, described as “The Freud of Football” by the Washington Post, is a South Florida native and licensed clinical and sports psychologist in Palm Beach. He provides mental coaching and sports psychology services, counseling, speeches and seminars. He recently authored his second book, “The Mental Performance Index: Ranking the Best Teams in Super Bowl History,” destroying stigmas about the mental game in sports and showing football teams how to perform better and win more games by enhancing team performance assessments and training. For further information call Dr. Murray at 561-596-9898, visit johnfmurray.com or email johnfmurray@mindspring.com.

I hope you enjoyed this article from the world of sports psychology.

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